Finally, history repeated and once again Prime Minister of Pakistan could not complete his five year of constitutional term. The old practice is done again. I wrote an essay on July 24, 2017 and claimed that, according to the circumstances and the type of proofs gathered, the Prime Minister could not be disqualified. I was correct, bit unfortunately, the supreme court disqualified the Prime Minister on a frivolous charge.
Here is what I wrote.
After a long and spicy hearing in the supreme court of Pakistan, the panama case verdict has been reserved. It might be announced in a few weeks after reading extraordinary ten-volume findings by the joint investigation team (JIT).
Soon after the start of the panama case in the supreme court, the guess game started whether the Prime Minister would be disqualified or not by the supreme court of Pakistan. The pro-disqualification warriors reached the climax after the 10-volume JIT report (it is unclear how ten books could be written in the short passage of time). The anti-disqualification team got some relief when the report was found to be just allegations without any proof (or some distorted proofs).
As for as my opinion is concerned, I am convinced that Prime Minister will not be disqualified by the supreme court of Pakistan. There are a few but very convincing reasons of this conclusion. Hence, Nawaz Sharif will be able to complete his tenure of five years for the first time. And so the parliament. And, the next elections will be held in 2018, for sure.
But how one could be certain that Prime Minister will not be disqualified? Has it been established that supreme court is an appeal court (and not the trial court)? Yes, supreme court is an appeal court but in a country like Pakistan where courts themselves have been making mistakes can disqualify the Prime Minister (as evident by the two dissenting notes). However, supreme court will still not disqualify Prime Minister on the basis, both legal and political.
It is true that Sharif family could not provide convincing proofs to get a clean chit from the apex court. However, it is also true that the petitioners and the extraordinary JIT also could not provide convincing proofs to disqualify Prime Minister. So, there is a tie. A tie in the favour of Prime Minister. Interestingly, the JIT after sixty days of super heroic work could not link a single alleged wrongdoing of the Sharif family with Nawas Sharif as a Prime Minister. The JIT could not link any financing, investment, or transaction of the Sharif family with Nawaz Sharif as a Prime Minister. They mere investigated different private businesses of the Sharif family and mutual transactions as old as thirty five years. Besides, the properties in UK whether belongs to Hussain Nawaz or Maryam Nawaz does not make any difference for Nawaz Sharif.
Whether someone admits or not the panama case is a political case in the name of corruption, as it was a conspiracy to oust PM Nawaz Sharif in the name of election rigging. Adding these two cases, the actual aim is to curtail and undermine politicians and democracy. The apex court does know that the case is political and in case of the ouster of Nawaz Sharif, there would be an un-ending list of individuals (mainly politicians in the first instant and then retired generals) whose disqualification, imprisonment, and impeachment would be sought. And, thus the apex court would transform in the political battle field.
In conclusion, the apex court will not disqualify Prime Minister, and will refer the case to the relevant forums, for example, trial court, speaker national assembly, or election commission of Pakistan.